ResMed Inc.

This is The Conviction Play. ResMed, sleep and respiratory care. Number five in our Exceptional Company Series, the businesses our framework grades exceptional.

ResMed treats sleep apnea, a condition where the airway repeatedly closes during sleep. The standard therapy is a bedside pump that holds the airway open through a mask, worn nightly, often for life. The pump is a one-time sale; the mask and tubing a patient replaces every few months, for years, is the business, and the machines are cloud-connected, reporting usage to the physicians and insurers who fund the therapy. Earnings have compounded at 14.0% for twelve years, rising in every single year-on-year comparison, the cleanest curve of any name in this series. That is what we mean by a structural compounder.

The market leader in CPAP devices and masks for obstructive sleep apnea, plus a cloud platform (myAir) that tracks patient compliance for physicians and insurers.

Why the economics are exceptional. The device is sold once; the mask is replaced for years.

The lock-in is data, not hardware. Reimbursement often depends on demonstrated usage, so switching a patient disrupts a payment pathway rather than merely swapping a box.

The record is the cleanest in this series.

The honest risk. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are the live debate. Obesity drives much of sleep apnea, and if these drugs are adopted widely the diagnosed population could shrink rather than grow. New patient starts are still rising, but this is the number that would break the growth case outright.

Three numbers to take away. Over 12 years, earnings per share compounded at 14.0% a year. 100% of the year-on-year comparisons were up. The worst fall in earnings was 0.8%.

The written profile of ResMed is on the site, and it goes further than this: the twelve-year earnings record as a chart, the figures behind every claim you have just heard, and the sources for all of them. It is free, with no email address and no paywall.

The Exceptional Company Series also covers Intuitive Surgical, Microsoft, Netflix and IDEXX Laboratories. Everything we publish is at the conviction play dot com, and the recordings are collected there under Listen.

A note before we finish. This episode is narrated by a synthetic voice, not by the author. Now the important part. This is an assessment of business quality, and it is not a buy signal. It is not a valuation, not a price target, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Exceptional can also be expensive. A company in this series can pass every test we set and still lose you money for years, if you buy it at the wrong price. ResMed fell 51 per cent from its high, spent more than five years below that price and has still not regained it, and its earnings rose the whole way through. The Conviction Play publishes general commentary for information only. It is not investment advice and it is not a personal recommendation. Capital is at risk, and the value of investments can fall as well as rise. This assessment reflects what was known on the date of recording, and nothing in it updates itself.

That was ResMed, number five in the Exceptional Company Series, from The Conviction Play. Thank you for listening.