This is The Conviction Play. Industrial capacity and supply chains. One of the forces we underwrite against, and this is what it is and where it leads.

Where things are made, and what they are made from, is being rebuilt for security of supply rather than lowest landed cost. Reshoring, redundancy and material substitution are one destination reached by two roads, coercion risk and physical scarcity.

The physical world does most of the work in this one, not some of it. The physical world decides what is scarce, and where it can still be dug, grown or made.

Underneath it, the themes.

Supply Chain Resilience, Localisation and Redundancy. Where production sits and how goods move. Factories brought closer to home and the capital spending that pulls in, freight and warehousing, spare inventory held on purpose rather than by accident, and the software that lets a company see its own supply chain. This one is about geography and movement.

Input Substitution and Material Innovation. What products are actually made of. Critical minerals sourced from more than one country, recycled feedstock, and engineered or biological substitutes for materials in short supply. This is the materials question, where supply chain resilience was the map.

We have not published a company under this force yet. That is a statement about where the work has reached, not a judgement that there is nothing here.

The whole map is on the site, with every theme written out and the companies we have covered under each one. It is free, with no email address and no paywall, at the conviction play dot com.

This is one of a series on the forces. The companies we judge exceptional have their own recordings, and everything we have made is collected at the conviction play dot com, under Listen.

A note before we finish. This episode is narrated by a synthetic voice, not by the author. This is a map of where capital is going. It is not a view on any share price, not a valuation, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. A force can be real and every company exposed to it still be a poor investment. The Conviction Play publishes general commentary for information only. It is not investment advice and it is not a personal recommendation. Capital is at risk, and the value of investments can fall as well as rise. The map is revised as the evidence changes, and this episode reflects it as it stood on the day it was made.

That was Industrial capacity and supply chains, from The Conviction Play. Thank you for listening.